What a breathtaking season this has been! The SportPesa Premier League, the 2016 season. Two matches to the end of the wire and no one can promise to know who will be crowned the champion.
The 2015 season saw Gor Mahia win their third consecutive Premier League title, by the way without conceding a single match. K’Ogalo had an amazing point tally of 78, 20 more than second placed Ulinzi with Sofapaka, who are surprisingly in relegation battle this season, a distant third on 47.
A reflection on that season has two points in mind; either Gor Mahia were too good to be caught or the league was not competitive enough. Your view is right but I would go for the former than the latter.
Fast forward to the 2016 season, and Gor Mahia are in second position still pushing leaders Tusker FC to the end of the road. Same time last year, Gor Mahia were the undisputed leaders and champions, but for this year things are different.
All we are sure of is Tusker FC are leaders, but we are never sure if they will manage the war ahead.
Four points separate the two sides, with two matches to go to the end of the league. And guess who Tusker FC play in their next match. I can bet that your guess is right there.
Sunday the 6th November 2016, at 3.00pm, Ugandan Paul Nkata’s Tusker will be at home to host Gor Mahia’s arch rivals AFC Leopards, in what many in the football arena are referring to as the title decider especially to the advantage of the 2012 Champions, at least if they will win.
A win in this match will guarantee Tusker the title irrespective of their result in their remaining match, surprisingly against the ‘mighty’ KÓgalo.
Tusker will still win the title in that weekend (4th-6th November) if Gor Mahia loses their match away to Muhoroni Youth.
It is therefore, undoubtedly true that all mathematics are to the advantage of the Ruaraka based side, and as it is always said the title is theirs to lose. Gor Mahia, on the other hand, are buying all their hopes on Tusker losing their matches and them winning all theirs to win this title for a record fourth consecutive time.
That is not my biggest issue, though. I want to begin my argument from an assumption that Tusker FC will win this title and won’t let it to slip through their hands.
I believe they’ve got what it takes to either beat AFC Leopards or Gor Mahia in their last match, though the former is the more viable option than the latter.
The 2016 Sport Pesa Premier League champion is Tusker FC. That is where I base my argument. I am not sure if Tusker deserves their 11th championship crown.
But had they had a more serious contender around them, not that Gor isn’t, but at least one that could have capitalised on their loses, then that opponent would have been at the helm of the Premier League table by now.
Last season, Gor finished the league with more points that this season’s winner will at the end of the season. Ze Maria’s men, not the coach at the time though, registered 24 wins, 6 draws, 10 of the wins being on the road.
Tusker FC have recorded a dismal 15 wins in 28 matches so far(adding an assumption of two wins in the last two matches gets this tally to a lowly 17), only five of these are home wins.
Numbers never lie. Gor scored 60 goals, conceding 12 in the process in 2015, as compared to Tusker’s 38 and 25 conceded so far this season. Any worthy opponent would have exploited Tusker FC’s weaknesses.
Statistically, therefore, assuming all other factors, Gor Mahia was worth winners in 2015 than Tusker FC will be in 2016. But not so bad especially in comparison to the 2014 season when KÓgalo won their second crown on 60 points. Anyway, Kudos Tusker FC, the champs in waiting.